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The Demographic Future

Nicholas Eberstadt

5/5 ( ratings)

It is already possible to draw a reasonably
reliable profile of the world’s population
in 2030. This is, of course, because the
overwhelming majority of those who
will inhabit the world 20 years from now
are already alive. As a result, one can
make some fairly confident estimates of
important demographic trends, including
manpower availability, the growth in the
number of senior citizens, and the resulting
support burden on workers.
Overall, it is apparent that the future
global economy will not be able to rely
on the kind of demographic inputs that
helped fuel growth in the era before the
current global recession. For today’s a¤uent
Western economies, the coming demographic
challenge of stagnant and aging
populations combined with mounting
health and pension claims on a shrinking
pool of prospective workers is already
generating concern, especially in Europe
and Japan. But at the same time, demographic
constraints in the rising economies
that are expected to fuel future global
growth are more serious and intractable
than generally recognized.
When the current painful and protracted
economic crisis is eventually resolved, the
global economy will likely embark again
on a path of sustained long-term growth—
but at a slower pace, because of new demographic
realities. These demographic
pressures can be substantially oªset only
if both rich and poor countries undertake
profound and far-reaching changes in
working arrangements, lifestyles, business
practices, and government policies.

Language: English

Pages: 12

Format: ebook

The Demographic Future

Nicholas Eberstadt

5/5 ( ratings)

It is already possible to draw a reasonably
reliable profile of the world’s population
in 2030. This is, of course, because the
overwhelming majority of those who
will inhabit the world 20 years from now
are already alive. As a result, one can
make some fairly confident estimates of
important demographic trends, including
manpower availability, the growth in the
number of senior citizens, and the resulting
support burden on workers.
Overall, it is apparent that the future
global economy will not be able to rely
on the kind of demographic inputs that
helped fuel growth in the era before the
current global recession. For today’s a¤uent
Western economies, the coming demographic
challenge of stagnant and aging
populations combined with mounting
health and pension claims on a shrinking
pool of prospective workers is already
generating concern, especially in Europe
and Japan. But at the same time, demographic
constraints in the rising economies
that are expected to fuel future global
growth are more serious and intractable
than generally recognized.
When the current painful and protracted
economic crisis is eventually resolved, the
global economy will likely embark again
on a path of sustained long-term growth—
but at a slower pace, because of new demographic
realities. These demographic
pressures can be substantially oªset only
if both rich and poor countries undertake
profound and far-reaching changes in
working arrangements, lifestyles, business
practices, and government policies.

Language: English

Pages: 12

Format: ebook

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