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UK 2015 - Eve of election forecast: Is the crowd wise about politics?

0/5 ( ratings)

This report summarises the work done by X-MR using wisdom-of-crowds and Google surveys to prepare a forecast for the outcome of the UK General Election on 7 May 2015. The method asks people to predict other's behaviour and not their own. Three different approaches for forecasting the final outcome have been tested. The simplest one has been a weekly survey assessing the prospects for the politicians most likely to be Prime Minister, which we have conducted since October 2014. David Cameron has consistently led the field during this time.We have also investigated possible outcomes at the constituency level, to obtain estimates of the possible distribution of seats in the new Parliament and therefore the likely composition of the new Government.
A consistent theme of our surveys is a much stronger expectation for the UK Independence Party than shown by conventional opinion polls. The most detailed constituency-level forecast suggests a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, with the consequence being a return to the two-party politics of the twentieth century.

Errata:

On page 4, "17:00 7 May" should read "17:00 6 May"

On page 6, "Lib Dem 13 seats should read 0 seats"

Pages: 11

Format: Kindle Edition

Publisher: X-MR

Release: May 05, 2015

UK 2015 - Eve of election forecast: Is the crowd wise about politics?

0/5 ( ratings)

This report summarises the work done by X-MR using wisdom-of-crowds and Google surveys to prepare a forecast for the outcome of the UK General Election on 7 May 2015. The method asks people to predict other's behaviour and not their own. Three different approaches for forecasting the final outcome have been tested. The simplest one has been a weekly survey assessing the prospects for the politicians most likely to be Prime Minister, which we have conducted since October 2014. David Cameron has consistently led the field during this time.We have also investigated possible outcomes at the constituency level, to obtain estimates of the possible distribution of seats in the new Parliament and therefore the likely composition of the new Government.
A consistent theme of our surveys is a much stronger expectation for the UK Independence Party than shown by conventional opinion polls. The most detailed constituency-level forecast suggests a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats, with the consequence being a return to the two-party politics of the twentieth century.

Errata:

On page 4, "17:00 7 May" should read "17:00 6 May"

On page 6, "Lib Dem 13 seats should read 0 seats"

Pages: 11

Format: Kindle Edition

Publisher: X-MR

Release: May 05, 2015

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