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Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation

3/5 ( ratings)

Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger.

A first step toward reducing these risks is to enhance awareness among decisionmakers of the causes and potential consequences of ambiguity. Unilateral and cooperative risk-mitigation measures could further reduce the danger of escalation, including in conflicts between the United States and Russia or the United States and China.

Language: English

Pages: 73

Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Release: April 09, 2020

Is It a Nuke?: Pre-Launch Ambiguity and Inadvertent Escalation

3/5 ( ratings)

Ambiguity about whether a weapon is nuclear-armed prior to its launch is an underappreciated, serious, and growing danger. Rising geopolitical tensions and the decay of arms control are exacerbating the risk that such pre-launch warhead ambiguity could lead to nuclear use in a crisis or conflict. Recent developments in technology—as well as potential future advances, such as the development of ambiguous intercontinental missiles—further add to the danger.

A first step toward reducing these risks is to enhance awareness among decisionmakers of the causes and potential consequences of ambiguity. Unilateral and cooperative risk-mitigation measures could further reduce the danger of escalation, including in conflicts between the United States and Russia or the United States and China.

Language: English

Pages: 73

Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Release: April 09, 2020

More books from James M. Acton

International Security 43:1 (Summer 2018)

Beyond New Start: Advancing U.S. National Security Through Arms Control with Russia

Abolishing Nuclear Weapons (Adelphi Book 396)

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