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Growth: Now and Forever?

Growth: Now and Forever?

Paolo Mauro
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Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon."
Pages
28
Format
ebook
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Release
August 09, 2014
ISBN
1322028451
ISBN 13
9781322028453

Growth: Now and Forever?

Paolo Mauro
0/5 ( ratings)
Read Download
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon."
Pages
28
Format
ebook
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Release
August 09, 2014
ISBN
1322028451
ISBN 13
9781322028453

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